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Randy's Journal -- The X-files--787 Vs A350XWB
07/21/2006

A 787 model soars over the entrance to the mockup at the Boeing Dreamspace at Farnborough.

Boeing offers complete market coverage from 100-450 seats. Our line of efficient and passenger pleasing airplanes - on display at the Farnborough International Airshow this week. 

For most people, Day 2 at the big air show probably meant a second day of sunstroke and perspiration. I don't know if this is yet record heat, but this has to be one of the hottest weeks on record in southern England.

Finding a spot indoors, and near a good, working air conditioner has become something of a sport - and the Boeing Chalet has so far not escaped the withering effects of the heat. Wow. Felt like 100 degrees Fahrenheit today. 

But one of the coolest spots (literally and figuratively) at Farnborough has to be the Dreamspace - Boeing's exhibit building. We've constructed a full-scale, traveling mockup of the 787, with some gee-whiz appeal that we haven't even yet incorporated into its much larger cousin back in Seattle. So if you have the chance to attend the show later this week, you're in for a real treat.

We of course will be at the show all week. And one of the first impressions of the show for me was Monday morning when we pulled into the Farnborough show grounds. Looming in front of our car as we arrived were a couple of billboards shrouded in white sheets and emblazoned with a huge "X."

Well, now we all know what the X-factor was.

At the Airbus briefing yesterday they unveiled the A350XWB, which stands for "Xtra Wide Body." Airbus claims that the latest A350 offering will be "five inches wider at eye level" than the 787 Dreamliner. The new A350 family is said to have more range and greater efficiency, with better passenger comfort - a "leap ahead" of the 787 (there's that leap-word again) and a "generation beyond" the 777.

Those catchy slogans basically tell you that they're trying to position the A350 family against both the 787 and 777 families. But I just don't see anything in yesterday's news that changes my basic view - that an Airbus family with a single fuselage/wing/engine/landing gear just cannot efficiently span the entire 787 and 777 size category.

It's interesting to note that two out of the three proposed A350 models are presented as taking on the 777. But the 777 cabin is over 10 inches wider than the latest A350. What happens then to the "extra wide body" claim?

So let's open the files on the XWB.

Right now there's not nearly enough information available for anyone to make an independent assessment. But I do think that the A350 seat counts and other claims put out on Monday may be a bit skewed.

When they compare their airplanes to ours, they seem to compare each model with an airplane that is significantly smaller, rather than like-size. And they compare the two on a per-seat basis.

For example, their A350-800 (which they claim seats 270) is compared to the 787-8 (at 242 seats). They say the Airbus product would have about a 6% advantage in fuel consumption per seat. Well in my view, the more appropriate comparison is with the 787-9, which seats 280 - only a 10 seat differential, rather than a 30 seat differential.

I suppose the reason they don't do the more comparable comparison is that the "6% advantage per seat" would probably end up being in favor of the 787-9, with possibly an even bigger advantage.

And to really tell the whole story you need to start the comparing in the 200-250 seat segment where the 787-8 is positioned. Airbus has no entry in this market. And it's a very significant market. In this sector the demand for replacement airplanes alone (A300s, A310s and 767s) is 1,500 airplanes! 

We'll have plenty of time to take a closer look at all of this. But for starters you have to ask a basic question. How can you claim that an airplane with a larger cross-section, bigger wing, larger engine, heavier landing gear and more range capability is more efficient than the 787-8 and 787-9? All the while incorporating less composite technology?

For sure they're attempting to add in many of the attributes that our airplanes have - passenger comfort, range capability, and efficiencies. But how are they planning to do that without committing to the technologies? The 787 has a composite fuselage and advanced electronic systems to provide both a better passenger experience AND greater efficiencies through lower weight, lower fuel burn and lower costs.

Anyway, Airbus has certainly recognized this is an important market to be in. In fact, in our forecast the 200 - 400 seat segment represents 90% of the widebody passenger airplane deliveries over the next 20 years.

So they've finally put their new airplane family on the table. And as the definition becomes clearer I'll have some more thoughts as to how the XWB competes with our very successful 787 and 777 families.

The truth is out there.


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