Air China Ltd., the nation's largest international carrier, said it likely slumped to a nine-month loss because of higher fuel costs and travel disruptions caused by the Olympics and natural disasters.

The carrier will also book a loss from wrong way bets on fuel prices after recent drops in the price of oil, the carrier said in a Hong Kong stock exchange statement today. The Beijing- based airline made a profit of 3.49 billion yuan ($511 million) in the first nine months of last year.

Air China joins China Eastern Airlines Corp. in reporting a probable loss in the period after the government forced carriers to curb flights to Beijing during the Olympics in order to ease pollution and congestion. Hundreds of flights were also canceled nationwide earlier in the year because of snowstorms in January and to help with relief efforts after the May Sichuan earthquake.

"The third-quarter results will be dreadful, wiping out profits from the first half," said Li Lei, an analyst at China Securities Co. in Beijing. "There's not much doubt that carriers will post full-year losses as well."

Li expects all six of China's listed carriers to post losses for the first nine months. Concerns about earnings have contributed to Air China plunging 72 percent in Hong Kong trading this year. The carrier dropped 2.7 percent to HK$3.20 today before the announcement.

Traffic Falls

The airline's passenger numbers have fallen for seven straight months. Traffic in September dropped 4.5 percent, the carrier said today on its Web site. In the first nine month, passenger numbers slipped 4 percent to 25.3 million.

The carrier will report losses on hedging contracts after fuel prices dropped. The airline is the most at risk among Chinese carriers from fluctuations in fuel prices because of its larger overseas network. Carriers in the country pay subsidized rates for fuel used on domestic routes and international prices for overseas services.

Jet-fuel prices hit a record high of $181.85 on July 3, more than double the year earlier price, in Singapore trading. They have since dropped almost half in line with declining oil prices.